In Search For Profits

Monday, October 27, 2003


Thom Calandra's report is bullish on IVAN/IVHMF.PK (gas and gold), ITRA (software), CRESY (Argentina commodities), talks about the Canada to China connection and says that the Tien Shan minerals belt may become next Klondike.

As per Calandra: "China's rising need for raw materials such as iron ore, alumina, copper, platinum, zinc and gold is leading some economists and miners to fear commodity prices will surge in coming years because of a lack of supply and because of poor or expensive shipping routes via sea to China. ... China's trade with Canada in this year's first eight months was $5.2 billion, up 6.7 percent from the same span a year ago. Jiabao said confidently that the two nations intend to double that amount by 2010. ... A growing number of Canadian mining companies ... are staking claims to mineralized tracts of China, Inner Mongolia and Mongolia in what appears to be a successful search for copper and gold. If some of their assays prove to be as successful as the enormous copper and gold discovery staked out by Canada's Ivanhoe Mines in Mongolia's Gobi Desert, several Canadian miners will have the instant advantage of being connected to China by rail and highway."

IVAN $3.83 on 10/24/2003
ITRA $2.29 on 10/24/2003
CRESY $12.89 on 10/24/2003



Russian stock exchange is down BIG today.
You can choose your "blood in the streets" play from the Russian ADRs below:


Company NameTickerSector
AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINESAERZFAIRLINES
AKRIKHIN PHARMACEUTICALSAKPOFPHARMACEUTICALS
AKRIKHIN PHARMACEUTICALSAKPUFPHARMACEUTICALS
AKRIKHIN PHARMACEUTICALSAKPUYPHARMACEUTICALS
AKRIKHIN PHARMACEUTICALSAKPZFPHARMACEUTICALS
KAZAN ORGSINTEZAKZGYCHEMICALS
MOSENERGOAOMOYELECTRIC UTILITY
PRIMORSKOE SEA SHIPPINGAPKSYTRANSPORTATION
AVTOVAZAVTZFAUTO MANUFACTURERS
BASHINFORMSVYAZBHFZYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
BANK VOZROZHDENIYEBKVZYBANKS
BURYATZOLOTO JSCBYZJYMINING
CENTRAL TELECOMMUNICATION COCRMUYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
FAR EAST ELECTROSVYAZ COFEEOYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
TRADE HOUSE GUMGUMRYRETAIL SERVICES
INKOMBANKIKMBYBANKS
IRKUTSKENERGOIKSGYELECTRIC UTILITY
KUZBASSENERGOKZBGYELECTRIC UTILITY
KAZAN TELEPHONEKZCTYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
LENENERGOLNGOYELECTRIC UTILITY
LUKOILLUKBYOIL & GAS
LUKOILLUKFYOIL & GAS
LUKOILLUKOYOIL & GAS
LUKOILLUKRFOIL & GAS
MOBILE TELESYSTEMSMBTTELECOMMUNICATIONS
MOSCOW CITY TELEPHONEMWCTYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
MMC NORILSK NICKELNILSYMINING
NORTH-WEST TELECOMNWTEYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
NIZHNEKAMSKSHINANZKMYAUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT
OAO GAZPROMOGZIFGAS PRODUCTION & SERVICES
OAO GAZPROMOGZPFGAS PRODUCTION & SERVICES
OAO GAZPROMOGZRYGAS PRODUCTION & SERVICES
NIZHNEKAMSKNEFTEKHIMONKMYCHEMICALS
ROSNEFTEGAZSTROYRNGZYOIL & GAS
ROSTELECOMROSTELECOMMUNICATIONS
ROSTOVENERGORTVGYELECTRIC UTILITY
ROSTOVENERGORTVPYELECTRIC UTILITY
SIBNEFTSBKYYOIL & GAS
SIBIRTELECOMSBTLYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
SURGUTNEFTEGAZSGTPYOIL & GAS
SURGUTNEFTEGAZSGTZYOIL & GAS
SUN INTERBREW LTDSIBHFBEVERAGES
SUN INTERBREW LTDSIBWYBEVERAGES
SAMARAENERGOSMRGYELECTRIC UTILITY
SEVERSKY TUBE WORKSSTBWYMETAL FABRICATION
SOUTHERN TELECOMMUNICATION COSTJSYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
SLAVNEFT-MEGIONNEFTEGAZSVMXFOIL & GAS
SLAVNEFT-MEGIONNEFTEGAZSVMZFOIL & GAS
TZUM TRADING HOUSETDHSYRETAIL SERVICES
TATNEFTTNTOIL & GAS
UTAIR AVIATIONUAIRYAIRLINES
UNITED HEAVY MACHINERY URALMASH-IZHORA GROUPUHMUYENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
UNITED HEAVY MACHINERY URALMASH-IZHORA GROUPUHMVYENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
UNIFIED ENERGY SYSTEMUSEPYELECTRIC UTILITY
UNIFIED ENERGY SYSTEMUSERYELECTRIC UTILITY
UNIFIED ENERGY SYSTEMUSEUFELECTRIC UTILITY
URALSVYAZINFORMUVYPYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
URALSVYAZINFORMUVYZYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONSVIPTELECOMMUNICATIONS
VOLGATELECOMVLGAYTELECOMMUNICATIONS
WIMM-BILL-DANN FOODS OJSCWBDFOOD PRODUCTS & SERVICES
YUKOSYUKOYOIL & GAS




Saturday, October 25, 2003


James Boxley Cooke, from the Oxford Club, came with this pick recently:

Varian Medical has revenues of more than $800 million and net profits of over $100 million killing cancer tumors with a success rate as high as 96% using the new IMRT. Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy uses computer-generated images to plan and then deliver even more tightly focused radiation beams to cancerous tumors than is possible with conventional radiotherapy.

With this capability, clinicians can exquisitely "paint" a precise radiation dose (usually x-rays) to the shape and depth of the tumor, while significantly reducing the adverse effects of doses on healthy tissue. IMRT results in significantly better patient outcomes and with diseases such as prostate cancer there has been a 13 percent to 35 percent improved survival rate with a decrease in treatment side effects.

Dr. Patrick Swift, medical director at the Alta Bates Comprehensive Cancer Center in Berkeley, California says "a quarter or possibly a third of our cancer patient population will soon be undergoing this treatment." Dr. James Cox of the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center says he intends to treat over 1,000 patients a year with this technology. And, he adds, "it is very much a part of our future." And Dr. Ted Lawrence, Professor of Oncology at the University of Michigan, says this breakthrough technology has opened up nothing less than "extraordinary possibilities."

VAR $61.74 on 10/24/2003




"Bullet" list of the TASR conference call:

  • Success rate 94% in estimated 33k incidents of Taser use.

  • Qtr to prev year qtr +216% sales, +254% profit

  • Net income from -69 to 1,076 qtr to prev year qtr

  • Qtr to prev qtr +46% sales, +41% profit

  • Great user acceptance of new Taser X26 (with better margins).


  • Taser mine long term project (5 yrs) partnership with GD for the military.

  • Long range Taser partnership with Batelle.

  • Broad patents approved an in process.

  • New VP from AH.

  • Growing US market penetration of 20% of 18,000 agencies (including top 5 PD's), 5% of 1,1 Mi officers are using Tasers.

  • Congress approved an initial $1 Mi for US Army to spend on Tasers.

  • Swiss police adopted Tasers, UK 12-month test going fenomenally well, Australia field trial showing fantastic results, this shows the trend.

  • Very large quotations coming, about 6 of them is each for more than half of the quantity ordered this entire year, the quantity for one of the quotations is more than the quantity for the entire year. One foreign military will probably buy much more next year after tests done.

  • TASR may have crossed tipping point in market momentum.

  • Pending litigations will not affect.

  • New building ready in 2004. Expected move in February.

  • 2003 net income +1,072% of 2002's.

  • Stock up 12.7 times $3.30 low in Oct/02.

  • Drop in price from May to October/2002 was not due to fundamental reasons, but because of the momentum play on the UAL order and the Cockpit Gun Bill. Airlines is a significantly smaller business and not core for TASR.


  • PE = 30 annualized basic EPS, PE = 43 on diluted EPS

  • Company growing at 100%

  • Investor relations conference in NY November/03, Chinese Investor Conference, Business Week ad

  • Marketing in Q4: IACP roundtable, TASER Europe conference, each PD will receive a customized cost & benefit report.

  • Taser platform: handhelds, long range, area denial (Taser land mine), cartridges.

  • Lithium proprietary batteries on model X26 will generate extra revenue.
The above is just the first half of the conference call and does not includes investor questions.

Click here to listen (needs Windows Media Player) or click here to watch it.

TASR $54.47 on 10/24/2003


Also check out my first posts about TASR: [1] [2]


Friday, October 24, 2003


The Management Network Group, Inc. (NasdaqNM: TMNG, $2.69) is a provider of consulting services to the telecommunications industry and can benefit from the new wireless number portability imposed on wireless service providers by the FCC. Their 3rd qtr Earnings Conference Call will be in 10/30/03, 5pm EST.

Here is what flashfromnashville from the EVOL board says: "I believe that they are in the same category as EVOL was in late last year when it was recognized that a turnaround had started and that you could buy the stock for close to its cash value with minimal downside. ...They have around $2/share in NET balance sheet value (most of that in cash), $20 million in hidden tax credits and have indicated that they expect the current quarter (shortly to be reported) and the last quarter of their year to collectively be cash flow positive (so that the balance sheet values are safe.) They have also indicated that they do see an upturn in their business coming (although the current quarter to be reported shortly will probably still be pretty soft IMHO) THUS, this one could definitely become a 5 bagger within a year if they can regain some of their former revenue levels (they have about a 50% gross margin, tons of tax credits, so every $1 of additional business will bring $.50 down to the income line!)"





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