In Search For Profits

Saturday, December 06, 2003


Nice graphing tool for Comcast users

It was a nice surprise to see that Comcast has provided its customers with Interactive Charts 4.0, an advanced graphing tool - for FREE!


1. Go to www.comcast.net, log in and look at the upper left column.


2. Click Finance on the upper left corner and select Advanced Charts.


3. The Interactive Charts will pop up. You can even do Fibonacci retracements on it!



Now notice how TRCI has obeyed the retracement almost perfectly. I lost money on TRCI (my sell stop is usually less than 25%) but this tool could have convinced me to buy the stock again at the 61,8% retracement. It would have been a very profitable trade even after the initial loss. That is why I put a link to Stephen Pierce's Fibonacci Secrets here.




Mr. Market's new pick - CFC

Mr. Market bought Countrywide Financial Corp at 106.88 on December 4th and has very good reasons for picking it. CFC is up 120% in the last 12 months and its P/E is just 7.1 and that is just the start. See what else is good about CFC.

Mr. Market follows a well defined screener criteria for composing a universe of stocks, from which he picks 5 stocks and then picks one of the five. The five stocks he picked recently are: CFC CTX FPIC HOV AHH(ex-AHMH).

CFC $107.70 on 12/5/03
HOV $95.16 on 12/5/03
CTX $110.66 on 12/5/03
FPIC $23.16 on 12/5/03
AHH $23.55 on 12/5/03






Nanotechnology - part II

More companies that can benefit from added publicity about nanotechnology in the coming NANO Commerce 2003 conference (December 9-11, Chicago).

NVE Corp. (NVEC, $55.10 on 12/5/03) - NVE Corporation develops and sells devices which utilize electron spin rather than electron charge to acquire, store and transmit information. Its magnetic random access memory technology (MRAM) has the potential to revolutionize electronic memory because it combines the performance of static RAM along with nonvolatility and speed.

JMAR Technologies (JMAR, $1.95 on 12/5/03) - JMAR Technologies develops light sources such as lasers and x-rays for semiconductor fabrication lithography. Its NanoLight Division has technology to deliver nanometer chip-making using x-rays. It has been receiving contracts from government defense agencies.

Tegal Corp (TGAL, $2.90 on 12/5/03) - Tegal Corp designs and builds advanced plasma etch tools utilized in the semiconductor fabrication processes. Tegal bought a nanotech company and is capable of building Nano Layer Deposition (NLD) tools. Four different insiders bought shares of Tegal recently: more than a million shares since the end of October, and in November, 900,000 shares were bought by the CEO. It can benefit from both nanotech and indirectly from the RFID boom.

Argonaut Technologies (AGNT, $1.82 on 12/5/03) - Argonaut Technologies develops products designed to help in the discovery and development of new chemical entities and particle separation (purification). Just like Symyx Tech, Argonaut's products enable parallel synthesis of new chemical compounds allowing multiple experiments in less time (combinatorial chemistry). It has had insiders buying shares and the stock is below book value.

Nanophase Technologies (NANX, $7.469 on 12/5/03) - Nanophase Technologies manufactures nanocrystalline materials: coated materials (such as ingredients for sunscreens) and uncoated materials (such as ingredients for anti-fungal aids, automotive catalytic converters and abrasion-resistant flooring). Nanophase's nanomaterials are used in various electronics polishing applications. The company will sponsor the NANO Commerce 2003 conference.

Elan Corp (ELN, $5.51 on 12/5/03) - Elan Corporation PLC is an Ireland biopharma company developing drugs for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, multiple sclerosis, pain and autoimmune diseases. Elan has the NanoCrystal technology which enables drugs with poor solubility and poor bioavailability to be milled in small particles and form a colloidal solution, improving dosage and administering and making drug delivery viable.

Westaim Corp (WEDX, $2.31 on 12/5/03) - Westaim Corp develops high-potential technologies into fast-growing sectors of the economy, including nanotechnology with its Nucryst Pharmaceuticals, which develops medical devices and pharmaceutical products based on its nanocrystalline silver against microbes. The company is researching the expansion of its nanocrystalline technology to other noble metals.

There are more nanotechnology companies that will be listed here soon.


NVEC $55.10 on 12/5/03
JMAR $1.95 on 12/5/03
TGAL $2.90 on 12/5/03
AGNT $1.82 on 12/5/03
NANX $7.469 on 12/5/03
ELN $5.51 on 12/5/03
WEDX $2.31 on 12/5/03






Thursday, December 04, 2003


Nanotechnology


On December 3th, President George W Bush signed the 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act authorizing $3.7 billion over the next four years. That is more than was spent in the Human Genome project. Europe is investing $915 million and Japan paid out $750 million last year. The National Science Foundation estimates that nanotech applications will be worth 1 trillion in the next decade.

Nanotechnology, or molecular manufacturing, is the design and manufacture of extremely small electronic and mechanical devices built at the molecular level of matter. The term "nanotechnology" was popularized by the technologist Eric Drexler in his 1986 book, "Engines of Creation" (he is also author of "Nanosystems").

A nanometer is a one billionth of a meter, that is the size of ten hydrogen atoms side by side. At this scale, individual atoms and molecules can not be seen directly because they are smaller than the light wavelenght. They do not behave like they do when manipulated in bulk, some new phenomena and properties emerge and new instruments, algorythms, simulations are needed to manipulate matter.

Imagine where the plastics industry was in the 30s and the IT industry in the late 50s. This $3.7 billion of government funding will likely result in early profits to companies that make tools (electronic microscopes, sensors and methods of manipulating atoms), modeling software (simulation) and materials (nanotubes, powders, ceramics, etc), computing devices (memory, processors) and nanobiotech (drug delivered in "nano-capsules"). New patents are being developed by today's nanotechnology companies and the most successful patents can be used in large scale with huge profit for these patent holders.

This is already happening. In a survey by the NanoBusiness Alliance, 21% of about 1,000 companies in nano-related business are bringing in revenue. An estimated $1.2 billion in venture capital will be invested in research and development of nano-related products and processes over the next year, not counting the big names like Du Pont, GE, Intel, IBM and Hewlett-Packard.

Dow Chemical, Jonhson & Jonhson, ConocoPhillips, GlaxoSmithKline, Raytheon, Sumitomo Chemical, Microsoft, BASF, Boeing, GM, Lucent, Motorola, and Phelps Dodge are paying attention and getting their feet wet in the new technology. There is an Eddie Bauer line of stain-resistant khakis made of a nanomaterial that repels oil and water, resists wrinkles and dries quickly. GM is testing a new clay plastic nano-composite in its minivans. Wilson has a new tennis ball that keeps inflated longer thanks to nano-based coating.

Here are some of the companies that may be a good especulation on the nanotechnology boom but keep in mind some of the companies are not yet profitable:

Veeco Instruments (VECO, $27.98 on 12/4/03) - Veeco is a semiconductor tool maker and an optical network and measurement company that maker atomic force and scanning probe microscopes which are used in nano-research. It has a superb 1-year graph.

Symyx Tech (SMMX, $20.08 on 12/4/30) - Symyx researches materials for chemical, life science and electronics application and specializes in the design and synthesis of polymers and catalysts for electronics and biotech industries. Its nano-methods synthesize arrays of hundreds to thousands of miniaturized materials on a single wafer, accelerating the experiments and decreasing the cost of research. It has too many patents to list.

Flamel Technologies (FLML, $29.00 on 12/4/03) - Flamel is a French biopharma company developing and testing drug delivery methods using polymers. Flamel's nanoparticles make the drugs reach the small intestine and be released slowly (controlled-release) so the patient can take less doses. A lot of companies may be interested in reintroducing their drugs with this delivery system.

SkyePharma PLC (SKYE, $13.69 on 12/4/03) - SkyePharma is a British biopharma company that develops drug delivery systems using lypid nano-particles. Poorly-soluble drugs can be made water soluble for improving body absorption.

Harris & Harris (TINY, $9.64 on 12/4/03) - Harris & Harris is a venture capital investment company operating as a business development company whose goal is long-term capital appreciation rather than current income. TINY has been investing in the development of new technologies in various industry segments through several private companies (NanoGram, NanoOpto, NanoPharma, NanoSys, NanoTechnologies, Nantero, NeoPhotonics, Optiva and others), focusing its new business activities on nano and micro-technology since early 2002. It is expected that TINY will profit very much from its companies IPOs.

NanoGen (NGEN, $6.16 on 12/4/03) - NanoGen just received the ninth patent for nano-manufacturing. The method can be used in the production of devices such as light-emitting flat panel displays, data storage materials and silicon wafers.

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI, $2.10 on 12/4/03) - Altair is engaged in the acquisition of patent applications, technology and tangible assets related to a hydrometallurgical process for the production of titanium dioxide products and nano-particles, which are used in plastics, fuel cell research and the biopharma industry.

I found about 26 more companies involved in nanotechnology. They are relatively undiscovered and will be listed here soon.


SMMX $20.08 on 12/4/03
FLML $29.00 on 12/4/03
SKYE $13.69 on 12/4/03
VECO $27.98 on 12/4/03
TINY $9.64 on 12/4/03
NGEN $6.16 on 12/4/03
ALTI $2.10 on 12/4/03


Some of the abridged information above was read on a brochure about the Forbes/Wolfe Nanotech Report, some abridged information from the ForbesWolfe blog website and some abridged information from the advertisement of the 24/7 Profits e-Dispatch Alert from the Red Zone VIP Service, and finally, some abridged information from the Ameritrade Apex web cast about Nanotechnology with Josh Wolfe.

The Red Zone VIP Trading service has had 41 winning picks out of 43 tries with average gains of 44%. Click here to try the Red Zone VIP Service risk-free.

The Forbes/Wolfe Nanotech Portfolio is up 247.72% since inception on March/2002. Click here to subscribe with a 67% discount off the cover price.






Sunday, November 30, 2003


More VOIP Plays:

It looks like the crowd "discovered" VOIP on Tuesday afternoon.
On Monday, the FCC, will try to end the controversy about regulating VOIP. Although it is unlikely that FCC will leave VOIP providers unregulated, FCC chairman Michael Powell said in a letter to Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore): "Imposing regulatory burdens on these new and emerging Internet services, before the FCC fully engages the public and develops a comprehensive record, may have the unintended consequence of stifling its growth and denying the public benefits of that growth."

Congress has already ruled that provider of information services, such as VOIP providers, should not be regulated as a telecommunications service.

I would not be surprised with a "sell on news" on Monday.

ZTEL $3.00 on 11/28/2003
EGHT $7.52 on 11/28/2003
VOCL $6.07 on 11/28/2003
DDDC $4.26 on 11/28/2003
INAP $2.24 on 11/28/2003



Japanese stocks

The Japanese market has dropped to about 13% from recent highs and it will soon be oversold.

Canon (CAJ $46.65 on 11/30/03) Technology Hardware & Equipment
Fuji Photo & Film (FUJIY $28.59 on 11/30/03) Leisure Goods & Services
Honda Motor (HMC $20.23 on 11/30/03) Auto Manufacturer
Internet Initiative (IIJIE $4.99 on 11/30/03) Technology Services
Kyocera Corp. (KYO $61.34 on 11/30/03) Electrical Component & Equipment
Nippon Telegraph (NTT $24.05 on 11/30/03) Fixed Line Communication
Nomura Holdings (NMR $15.97 on 11/30/03) Investment Services
NTT DoCoMo (DCM $21.88 on 11/30/03) Wireless Communication
ORIX Corp. (IX $36.40 on 11/30/03) Diversified Financial
Sony (SNE $34.35 on 11/30/03) Leisure Goods & Services
Toyota (TM $59.57 on 11/30/03) Auto Manufacturer (It is taking market share in Europe and US.)
NEC (NIPNY $7.35 on 11/30/03) Audio & Video Equipment
Nissan (NSANY $22.78 on 11/30/03) Auto Manufacturer



Insider Buys

Apparel maker Warnaco Group (WRNC) has licenses and ownership of brands such as Calvin Klein, Speedo, Nautica and even Jennifer Lopez Lingerie. Four insiders have been buying $150,000 in shares and the stock is rising after touching briefly its 200 day moving average (seems the market overreacted to the sportswear group president's resignation and the earnings projections revised downwards - that means there is room for good surprises). If the economy recovers, retail should do well.

Other insider buys:
Boca Resorts (RST) with almost $8 million bought
WMS Industries (WMS) about $3 million and Midway Games (MWY) $788,000 being bought by Sumner Redstone
Applied Materials (AMAT) $1,1 million
James Monroe (JMBI) $1 million
American Express (AXP) $890,000
Orthodontic Centers America (OCA) $793,000
Post Properties (PPS) $937,000
General Growth Properties (GGP) $468,000
Wave Systems (WAVX) $160,000
Cohen & Steers Pfd Income (RNP) $100,000
DIGI International (DGII) $85,000
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) $58,000
Woodward Governor (WGOV) $92,000
Noble International (NOBL) $38,000








OAO Gazprom

Although Gazprom 2nd qtr net profit more than tripled due to the higher natural gas prices, the stock has not seen the action one would expect. Gazprom exports gas to Europe and is responsible for about 23% of the global output. Maybe when the impact of Russian government's freezing Yukos shares dissipates, Gazprom stock can start its ascent. Gazprom already belongs 51% to the government so it would not make much sense for them to freeze Gazprom's shares, but this is a debt-riddled company that has been reported with inumerous accounting irregularities.

OGZPF.PK $23.75 on 11/29/2003







Speculating with the China's booming economy

The World Bank expects growth of 7.8% this year and 7.4% in the next and China has a fast growing middle class. But valuations can go far above what is justified and China has problems too: poor corporate governance, shaky legal system, scarcity of information, insolvent banking system, growing social unrest and a potential property bubble (prices have risen as much as 28% in 12 months).

A lot of Asian companies can only be bought through pink sheet stocks, Hong Kong accounts or US-traded mutual funds. Below, a list of some of the companies that are based in China, Hong Kong or other Asian companies that can profit from China's boom:
Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd (AHCHF.PK)
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTF.PK and TSGTY.PK) is China's largest brewery selling at 34 times earnings and it is an industry undergoing consolidation. Anheuser-Busch (BUD) is investing on it.
Legend Group Ltd (LGHLY.PK and LGHLF.PK) has 20% of the global market for computer motherboards.
The Bank of East Asia Ltd (BKEAF.PK and BKEAY.PK) is a Hong Kong bank and the most modern network with branches in China.
DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBSDF.PK, DBSDY.PK and DBSXY.PK) also is a bank with strong presence in China.
Shangri-La Asia Ltd (SHALF.PK and SHALY.PK) runs a popular chain of hotels in China.
Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd (CPCAF.PK and CPCAY.PK) owns a stake in mainland China's Dragonair and its brand is well regarded.
Li & Fung Ltd (LFUGF.PK) and China Resources Enterprise Ltd (CHNRF.PK and CHNRY.PK) are trading and retailing companies that can profit from Chinese consumers' spending.
Singapore Airlines Ltd (SPAAF.PK and SPOAF.PK)
Want Want Holdings Ltd (WWHGF.PK) has a good market share of beverages and snack foods in China.
Neptune Orient Lines Ltd (NPTOF.PK and NPTOY.PK) is a Singapore's prospering shipping company.
LG Chem Ltd (LGCLF.PK and LGCQF.PK) serves China's huge need for chemicals.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Corp Ltd (HNHAY.PK and HNHPF.PK) is a Taiwanese electronics maker with production in China.
Qingling Motors Company Ltd (QGLHF.PK) is a light-truck maker in China.

Now a few companies can be bought in the regular stock markets:
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP and BBL) and Rio tinto PLC (RTP) are Australian mining companies that can profit from price increases in metals which are needed by the Chinese industry.
China Mobile (CHL) may not grow much, but it is regarded as a solid stock.
PetroChina(PTR)
Sinopec Shanghai PetroChemical Co Ltd(SHI - process crude oil into plastics, fibers, gasoline and diesel, which are in high demand. The stock is still at a small premium to book value and P/E is 14.3)
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co Ltd(YZC)
Aluminium China(ACH - Aluminum sales have grown 11% last quarter and the company raised guidance.)
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings(CBA)
China Petroleum Chemical(SNP)
Netease.com Inc(NTES - Net sales nearly doubled, only 5% of Chinese population is online, just became profitable)
Sina Corp(SINA - Sales more than tripled, gross margin is a fenomenal 70%, just became profitable. It is likely that aggressive institutional investors will now keep a healthy buying pressure on SINA and NTES.)







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