Invest in Real Estate

That is SCREEN Real Estate: 21" monitors. (Update: All of them found new owners!)

Thinking about adding an extra monitor for your trading?
Need more space to put your charts?

You can get the idea from Ross Farr trading cockpit below.

A possible and risky Taser-like play

Small float, defense/security company, new technology, non-lethal weapons, constant terror threats, war in Iraq.

Metal Storm Ltd (MTSX, $5.49 on 6/25/2004) - Metal Storm Limited is engaged in R & D of electronic ballistics and programmable electronic firing technology.

MTSX $5.49 on 6/25/2004

Investing with an eye on the Interest Rate Cycle

Stage I - rising interest rates:
When the Short Term interest is in rising trend, one can consider going long on money market funds.
When Long Term interest rises, one can consider going long on 2 to 5-year Treasury notes till maturity and placing a tighter stop loss in corporate bonds, dividend paying stocks and mutual funds. Long Term interest rates can lag 4 to 5 weeks the changes in T-bills and CDs. Short Term interest rates start to fall while Long Term rates are still lagging at highs.

Stage II - plateau:
When Short Term interest is in a flat trend, one can consider going long on 6-month Current Income Funds (CIFs) and 6-to-12-months T-bills at the beggining of the plateau as well as money market funds, 90-day T-bills, 90-day Commercial Paper and CDs for the entire stage.
When Long Term interest reaches a plateau, one can consider holding Treasury notes till maturity and discard other long term buys.

Stage III - declining interest rates:
When Short Term interest is in a declining trend, one can consider selling money market funds and not renewing other short term investments.
When Long Term interest is in a declining trend, one can consider going long 2-to-5-year Treasury notes (looking for the ones with large float and narrow bid-ask spread) on 50% of the portfolio and holding till maturity (even if it was wrong-timed), keeping 20% in foreign higher-interest savings accounts in currencies that are in a rising trend or very cheap (Canada, England, Swiss, ...), and, when the decline is established with the Dow Jones Utilities starting to rise in the 4-month chart, buying high quality 2-to-10-year corporate bonds (rated Aaa to A-), tax-free dividend-paying stocks and mutual funds.

Stage IV - interest rates bottom:
When Short Term interest is at the bottom, one can consider disposing of all short term instruments but holding a little change in money market funds, buying 90-day Canadian Treasury bills or British Warbonds (gilts) if their interest rates are higher.
When Long Term interest is at the bottom, one can consider holding all the securities bought at stage III.

During all stages:
One can consider keeping 5 to 10% in gold stocks and trade them, buying on weakness and selling on strenght.

Things to avoid according to this strategy:
municipal tax-exempt bonds, Long Term bonds, below A- corporate bonds, Latin American banks/savings, futures, EE and HH savings bonds and bear market rallies.

This strategy was conceived by Samson Coslow during the 80s. Sam Coslow was the pioneer in the use of stock market and economic indicators and investment newsletter writing, one of the first gold bugs.

Mark Cuban spills the beans

In Ancient Greece, white beans indicated positive votes and black beans negative. Votes had to be unanimous, so if the collector 'spilled the beans' before the vote was complete and a black bean was seen, the vote was halted. With time, the expression "spill the beans" became the term for "divulge a secret".

Mark Cuban made money selling his companies MicroSolutions (to CompuServe) and Broadcast.com (to Yahoo!), made money by going long and then short in tech stocks and now is having fun owning the Dallas Mavericks.
In his blog, Mark Cuban told his opinion about the stock market. Don't miss it!

How to profit from interest rate changes in the short term

(This is a little late, but what the hey...)

If one thinks interest rates will go up (that is, falling bond prices), one can buy puts or sell calls on TLT ($86.71 on 4/3/2004), the iShares Lehman 20+ Treasury Fund. This exchange-traded fund tends to track the 10-year Treasury note (check iShares for more information).

Conversely, if one thinks yields will go down (rising bond prices), one can buy calls or sell puts on TLT, or even buy TLT itself.

Buying options is generally safer than selling them (short). Suppose someone had sold puts believing that there would be a bad job report (meaning the economic recovery would not be soon and consequently, the interest rates would stay low longer). The job report was good (meaning the economic recovery is likely to make interest rates go up sooner) and that person would be forced to cover his short put by buying TLT at a higher price (at a loss).

TLT $86.71 on 4/3/2004

Long Range Acoustic Devices

The LRAD is a less-than-lethal directional acoustic gun that sends a beam of high-decibel tone that can be used to deny areas, control crowds and keep away potential threats.

On late February, American Technology Corporation (ATCO, $5.95 on 4/1/2004) has got a $1 million contract with the US Marine Corps to deliver LRADs. That is only a tiny part of the Congress $335 million allocation (in a flood of $87 billion earmarked to defense).

ATCO $5.95 on 4/1/2004

Traders and tax software

If you are filing your taxes using one of those softwares (Turbo Tax, Tax Cut, etc) and you think you need to type every single trade into the form, there is a better way.

If you have Quicken or Microsoft Money, it is likely that you can download all your transactions from your broker and save them in an TXF file.

The TXF file can then be read by your tax software and all your transactions will show up. You still have to enter the information from the 1099 forms you have received for dividends, interest and other income.

Brazilian emerging market looking technically ugly

According to GrafistaBsb, these are bear market signs: a drop that breaks the bullish trendline followed by a failure to resume the climb to above the 61.8% fibonacci mark and another drop to below the first drop. To me, that first double top was enough to convince to take profits and bravely run away like Sir Robin.

Now, the Bovespa index has to maintain the bottom at 20800, otherwise it can drop to 18000 on its main trendline. Things still look good long term though.

HZO - I've been sleeping at the wheel!

Mr. Market picked up this gem 7 days ago ... and I was too busy to check. Check it out!

Dow Theory

This one came up from GlobalStation.com.br.

Among other things, the Dow Theory says that the movements on one of the averages (industrial) must be confirmed by the movements on the other average (transportation). In January/04, the transportation average started to diverge negatively in comparison to the industrial average.

Later that was confirmed as an alert signal and both the averages fell to their support: the transportation average touched the 200 MA and the industrial average stopped falling at its 38% Fibonacci retracement considering the bullish move from August/03 to February/04.

If these support levels are maintained, rallies can happen on the next few weeks.

This one came up from the folks at GlobalStation.com.br.

^DJI 10,300.30 on 3/17/2004

^DJT 2,847.65 on 3/17/2004

Some stocks screened yesterday

Just based on chart action. Do your own DD. This is a jittery market.

Amedisys Inc (AMED, $23.629 on 3/16/2004) - home healthcare nursing services.

EDAP TMS SA (EDAP, $2.03 on 3/16/2004) - minimally invasive medical devices to destroy localized tumors.

Gristede's Foods Inc (GRI, $1.00 on 3/16/2004) - NorthEast supermarkets and pharmacies.

Magal Security Systems (MAGS, $11.65 on 3/16/2004) - perimeter security systems and motion-detection systems.

Metris Companies Inc (MXT, $6.15 on 3/16/2004) - financial products and consumer credit.

OMNI Energy Services Corp (OMNI, $7.721 on 3/16/2004) - oilfield service company (mostly LA and TX).

Perini Corp (PCR, $15.95 on 3/16/2004) - general contracting, construction management and design-build services.

Smithway Motor Xpress Corp (SMXC, $4.22 on 3/16/2004) - nationwide truckload carrier.

Cash Technologies Corp (TQ, $1.35 on 3/16/2004) - self-service coin counting machines and transaction processing systems.

Viisage Technology Inc (VISG, $6.68 on 3/16/2004) - advanced technology solutions for identity verification including biometrics.

AMED $23.629 on 3/16/2004	EDAP $2.03 on 3/16/2004
GRI $1.00 on 3/16/2004
MAGS $11.65 on 3/16/2004	MXT $6.15 on 3/16/2004
OMNI $7.721 on 3/16/2004	PCR $15.95 on 3/16/2004
SMXC $4.22 on 3/16/2004	TQ $1.35 on 3/16/2004
VISG $6.68 on 3/16/2004

ADRs from Spain


For a speculative bargain hunt... if there is any bargains - maybe too soon or too late.

Yahoo link

Company Name	Ticker	Sector
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA SA	BBV	BANKS
BANCO ESPANOL DE CREDITO SA	BNSTY.PK	BANKS
BANCO SANTANDER CENTRAL HISPANO SA	STD	BANKS
BANKINTER SA	BKNTY.PK	BANKS
CORP MAPFRE SA	CRFEY.PK	INSURANCE
ENDESA SA	ELE	ELECTRIC UTILITY
NH HOTELES SA	NHHEY.PK	HOTELS & MOTELS
REPSOL YPF SA	REP	OIL & GAS
TELEFONICA MOVILES SA	TEM	TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TELEFONICA SA	TEF	TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TELEPIZZA	TLPZY.PK	RETAIL SERVICES
TERRA NETWORKS SA	TRLY	INTERNET PRODUCTS & SERVICES

BBV $13.16 on 3/15/2004	STD $10.77 on 3/15/2004
ELE $18.93 on 3/15/2004	REP $20.20 on 3/15/2004
TEM $10.95 on 3/15/2004	TEF $46.48 on 3/15/2004
TRLY $6.119 on 3/15/2004

Emerging markets eyed by pension funds

According to the Thursday's Financial Times, the third largest public pension fund with a total of US$ 154 bi, California Public Employee's Retirement System (Calpers), is considering 12 emerging markets to invest (other than China, India and Russia).

The best countries were chosen: (in this order) Poland, Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Jordan, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil. Turkey, Argentina and Peru were discarded due to political stability, workers laws, transparency, liquidity and volatility.

Emerging markets have just 5% of global stock capitalization and their quality is improving with better accountability and transparency.

Two New Colorectal-Cancer Drugs coming

As reported in the Wall Street Journal, ImClone's Erbitux is expected to be approved by Friday and Genentech's Avastin is scheduled to the end of March. Options on DNA and IMCL may deserve due diligence.

DNA $97.95 on 2/12/2004

IMCL $43.96 on 2/12/2004

Soros says there is an asset bubble in both US and China markets

"China's asset bubble makes it ``very difficult to find vehicles for investing'' there, Soros said. That's a problem when you consider China is the only real source of growth in Asia, a region increasingly dependent on its demand for goods.

In the U.S., record current account and budget deficits are spooking investors who wonder if the world's No. 1 economy is living too far beyond its means and that a day of reckoning is near. The euro gained 16 percent versus the dollar in the last 12 months, while the yen gained 14 percent.

``Since the decline of the dollar in the short term is beneficial for the U.S. economy, the authorities actually like it,'' Soros said. But when currencies drop they ``tend to actually pick up speed'' and ``it's a very dangerous game because it can get out of hand.''

Not one to hide his distaste for U.S. President George W. Bush, Soros donated $12.5 million during the past year to two independent advocacy groups opposing Bush's re-election. "

The Curse of the Dow Trading Range

Interesting article.

"In 1966, the great Dow bull peaked at a general market P/E of 24.1. After trading sideways for 17 years, the Dow 30 ultimately reached half fair value in March 1982, with general markets trading at 7.0x earnings, which happened to herald the very birth of one of the greatest 17-year bull market cycles in history. In 2000, the next great Dow bull peaked at a far higher general market P/E of 44.2. It may indeed again take 17 years in total, about 14 more years, for the earnings of the US stock market to catch-up with astronomical stock prices and lay solid fundamental foundations for the next major Dow 30 bull market."

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Defense Budget

United Industrial Corp (UIC, $18.97 on 2/3/2004) - This company has two subsidiaries: Detroit Stoker, which supplies industrial energy equipment, and AAI Corp, which develops unmanned aerial vehicles (Shadow UAV) and other air defense systems.

As per the US Dept of Defense, the proposed defense budget for fiscal 2005 contemplates products like AAI Corp develops:

"Unmanned aerial vehicles continue to receive a great deal of budgetary attention. The Air Force plans to buy four Global Hawk aircraft at $359.7 million. In addition, the service will put $336.2 million into continued Global Hawk research.

The Air Force would buy nine Predator UAV systems for $146.5 million, and the Army would procure four Shadow UAV systems for $42 million.

The unmanned combat aerial vehicle – a joint program with the Air Force, Navy and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency – will receive $710.4 million in research and development monies. Overall unmanned vehicle research will receive almost $2 billion under the proposal."

UIC $18.97 on 2/3/2004

Taser Shorts Stunned Again

The stock trades for about 140 times its 2003 per-share earnings of $1.07 and about 121 times the 2004 full-year earnings estimate of $1.21 a share. In a related statistic, more than half the company's float is short interest, a circumstance that has repeatedly caused big gains in the stock in the absence of catastrophic earnings news.

Taser's tiny float of about 2.2 million shares exacerbates the short squeeze.

Nice collection of links

Selected links from an old Forbes magazine.

Ivolatility - volatility measures and comparisons
CEOExpress - list of news sources
BioSpace - biotech news
About.com Biotech - biotech info
FairMark - tax guide for investors
Bussiness.gov - small business development
CANSLIM - CANSLIM discussion group
Value Investors Club - selected club of value investing (2-mo old for guests)
ERaider - quality investing forum

Bill Gross makes 2 recommendations:

1) Invest in reflatables.
2) Invest in securities that borrow at 1% instead of lending at 1%.

That means:

1) Commodities and tangible assets
2) Foreign currencies
3) Real estate
4) TIPS
5) Global bonds and equities denominated in non-dollar currencies

Click here to see a further explanation.

Bearish guru recommends gold laggards

I heard through the grave pine that Mr. Martin Weiss would be recommending Goldcorp Inc (GG, $13.62 on 1/25/2004) below $13.55 and Cambior Inc (CBJ, $2.79 on 1/25/2004) below $2.61. Since I am not a Safe Money subscriber, I cannot confirm these allegations though.

I would also take a look at Metallica Resources Inc (MRB, $1.60 on 1/25/2004) and Gold Fields Limited (GFI, $13.45 on 1/25/2004).

GG $13.62 on 1/25/2004	CBJ $2.79 on 1/25/2004
MRB $1.60 on 1/25/2004	GFI $13.45 on 1/25/2004

Mega list of silver stocks:

Yahoo list of silver stocks

Pill promises to reduce artery swelling

AtheroGenics Inc (AGIX, $20.60 on 1/25/2004) - Atherogenics has just initiated the Phase III of FDA trials for its pill that treats swelling resulting from inflamation of arteries. That is a problem that Pfizer's Lipitor and Merck's Zocor cannot prevent.

Atherogenics began a 4 thousand patient trial of its AGI-1067 that will cost $40 million and as featured in Forbes' "Cardiovascular Drugs To Watch", it is the the first pill aimed at reducing cardiac inflammation.

Two years from now this could be a blockbuster drug. Morgan Stanley biotech analyst Steve Harr guesses that sales could readily surpass $1 billion.

The stock is 185% up from a year ago and could still become an acquisition target at a healthy premium. Big pharma is falling behind and they need new drug discoveries (a lot of their patents are expiring in 2008).

AGIX $20.60 on 1/25/2004

Asia's Leading Companies

The REVIEW 200 is an annual readership survey of the Far Eastern Economic Review magazine that ranks which companies in Asia best exemplify selected qualities of corporate leadership.

Free wireless-capable Palm Pilot i705 PDA when opening an account with Ameritrade

Minimum balance $5,000. Offer ends February 29, 2004.

Ranking of Nanotech stocks:
Percentage of increase since 24-November/3-December prices.

Symbol	Perfor mance		Theme
BIPH.OB	253%		nanomagnetic MRI shielding
PFCE.OB	145%		fuel cell carbo nanotubes
TINY	150%		Cap invest in nanotech
USGA.OB	117%		nanotech armor plate
NGEN	113%		key patent nano
CTT	87%		Hi risk -nanoparticle bone biomaterial
JMAR	107%		laser nano chipmaking spintronics
NANX	88%		nanocrystals nanomaterials
MFIC.OB	96%		nanoparticles microfluidizer equip
OBDCF.PK	63%		spintronics
ACO	60%		owns Nanocor plastic clay composite
NNOS.OB	47%		Nanosignal ATF
PCOP	45%		research
TGAL	51%		possible nano-etching technology
ELN	47%		hi risk
WEDX	38%		owns Nucryst - nanocrystaline metals
ROBE.OB	38%		particle nanocluster mfg process
ALTI	43%		-
SMMX	33%		research
NANO	31%		not nano microscale mfg losing
SPHRF.PK	31%		drug delivery
NPCT.OB	9%		electronics connection system Nanopierce
NVEC	19%		MRAM Josh Wolfe
AGNT	10%		nano purification & bioanalytical analy
FEIC	15%		Supplies advanced microscopy tools
NVMI	13%		possible nano-etch
HDWR	12%		hydrogen peroxide using nanocatalyst
HPQ	15%		molecular transistors & switches
GE	9%		Fort500 player nanoaluminum
NNPP.OB	3%		carbon nanotube nanoflat tv June04
VECO	8%		Supplies advanced microscopy tools
UTEK	5%		nanolithography
MDT	6%		Med equip maker may benefit
CBT	5%		Bought Superior MicroPowder
FLML	3%		French pharma nice pipln nanodrug delivr
DD	4%		Fort500 player
INTC	-1%		Fort500 player
IBM	5%		nano storage & nanotube transistors
SKYE	-6%		-

An interesting TASR report:

From the Rubin Investment Group.

One way bet: gold, up.

That is what says Dr. Steve Sjuggerud:

"Fortunately, the Fed is not hiking rates, and with the recent (reported) inflation numbers at 40-year lows, it doesn't appear that Greenspan will raise rates for a while.

Mainstream investors still aren't (though perhaps not for much longer): gold.

With interest rates close to zero, gold actually poses competition to paper money...

When given a choice between government-printed paper money paying 5% interest, and gold paying no interest, most folks take the paper money - they figure it's a risk worth taking.

But when the government-printed paper money pays no interest, and the government behind the money is in debt somewhere between $80,000 and $400,000 per household in America, then gold looks more attractive.

Right now, the government does not look likely to raise interest rates in the near term. And based on that, gold will continue to be a one-way bet - up!

The "one-way bet" is a simple idea... if inflation is dead, the government will print money to create inflation (really to prevent deflation), causing the price of gold to rise. And if inflation appears, gold will rise even more, as the dollar continues to fall, until the Fed seriously starts hiking interest rates multiple times.

There is plenty of room for gold to move higher, even though it has already moved significantly. Triple-digit gains are still possible."

Dr Marc Faber provides his outlook for 2004

Economist Marc Faber is author of "Tomorrow's Gold".

Click here for the article.

Some short squeeze candidates that showed up on my screen

Valence Technology Inc (VLNC, $4.21 on 1/7/2004) - Research Services. Short interest 28 days to cover.

Telesp Celular Participacoes SA (TCP, $7.38 on 1/7/2004) - Brazilian Telecom Services. Short interest 24.

Identix Inc (IDNX, $5.3288 on 1/7/2004) - Software. Short interest 18.

Pegasus Communications Corp (PGTV, $30.62 on 1/7/2004) - CATV Systems. Short interest 16.

Advent Software Inc (ADVS, $21.29 on 1/7/2004) - Software. Short interest 13 days.

OSI Systems, Inc (OSIS, $21.12 on 1/7/2004) - Semiconductor. 12 days.

TradeStation Group Inc (TRAD, $10.04 on 1/7/2004) - National brokerage. 12 days to cover.

Knight Trading Group Inc (NITE, $15.64 on 1/7/2004) - Regional brokerage. 11 days.

99 Cents Only Stores (NDN, $29.65 on 1/7/2004) - Discount stores. 11 days to cover.

Collins and Aikman Corp (CKC, $6.44 on 1/7/2004) - Auto parts. 10 days to cover.

SAFLINK Corp (SFLK, $3.10 on 1/7/2004) - Internet Software. Shorts have 10 days to cover.

VLNC $4.21 on 1/7/2004	TCP $7.38 on 1/7/2004
IDNX $5.3288 on 1/7/2004	PGTV $30.62 on 1/7/2004
ADVS $21.29 on 1/7/2004	OSIS $21.12 on 1/7/2004
TRAD $10.04 on 1/7/2004	NITE $15.64 on 1/7/2004
NDN $29.65 on 1/7/2004	CKC $6.44 on 1/7/2004
SFLK $3.10 on 1/7/2004

Best performing precious metals stocks in my watch list

Maybe worth a look if one believes in a continued fall of the US dollar.

CDE SSRI GSS WHT HL PAAS WTZ AGT BGO

CDE $6.13 on 1/7/2004	SSRI $12.15 on 1/7/2004
GSS $6.65 on 1/7/2004	WHT $3.01 on 1/7/2004
HL $8.45 on 1/7/2004	PAAS $14.54 on 1/7/2004
WTZ $5.65 on 1/7/2004	AGT $2.35 on 1/7/2004
BGO $3.60 on 1/7/2004