In Search For Profits

Friday, September 26, 2003


Check out Mr. Market's new forum!

Mr Market's methods really work. I have been investing profitably from some of Mr Market's selections. Here is some of MrMarket winners I watched since June after he mentioned them the first time in his top 5 selections:

SSYS +61%
MAXF +32%
APPX +65%
CSNT +15%
FCFS +38%
ASFI +24%
COH +11%
ADVP +25%
SFCC +41%
OZRK +12%
CMBC +9%
NARA +9%
PRX +18%
SYNO +14%

Some of the stocks he mentioned went down but at the maximum of -17.45% which was BSTE. Limited losses, unlimited winners. The winners more than compensate losses like these. To me that seems a good formula for investing, to say the least.

He follows a very well defined method of selecting stocks and then explains clearly the reasons why he bought the stock. You cannot be more transparent than that.

$$$ Mr. Market is HUGE $$$



Wednesday, September 24, 2003


ALAN - a penny stock that popped up on my screen yesterday

Utilizing wrist-worn inmate transmitters and belt-worn officer safety units, Alanco's TSI PRISM tracking system tracks and records the location of everyone in a prison facility every second of every day, providing a unique historical database for post-incident investigations and disciplinary proceedings. Proprietary anti-tampering features automatically detect and record any attempt to remove transmitters worn by inmates and staff. Inmates quickly learn that they are being continuously monitored and can no longer hide their activities nor depend on a "silent" inmate population to cover their prohibited behavior.












Tuesday, September 23, 2003


The Profit Hog's Volume Spike Alert strikes again.

NIC Inc (NasdaqNM: EGOV) is up more than 18% today on almost 5x average volume. The company offers electronic/Internet services to State governments to allow citizens to pay parking tickets online, renew vehicle registration and other services like that. They have contracts with more than 25 governments, more than $47 million in annual revenue and have had volume spikes before. Mr. Hicks recommended it today to his Profit Hog's subscribers.









A lot of real estate articles:

Benny Kass is the author of the weekly Housing Counsel column with The Washington Post for nearly 30 years and a specialist in real estate legal areas as commercial and residential financing, closings, foreclosures and workouts.

Check it out!

tip from TheWheelerman in the TEI Board


Monday, September 22, 2003


The simple 28 days moving average method

From the BeyondTEI Yahoo Group:

Buy or hold stocks trading above the 28 DMA and sell stocks going below the 28-d Daily Moving Average.

This method have studied by the Chicago School of Business and explained in the Stock and Commodity magazine. As per the investor Johnamj from the Yahoo BGO board, if you just traded 5 Fidelity Select funds, kept the money in only funds trading over the 28 DMA, on average over a 10 year period you would return about 33% per
year.

Another investor from the BGO board, fcaseymgt, described an experiment he did with the aid of a statician. He tried similar methods with 5 days, 10 days, 15 days, and every plus 5 days until periods of 60 days. He noticed that the best relative performer was the 25-30 day period over all histories 1989-1998. Shorter terms produced noise and longer periods failed at turns.

Even if there were no reason for this method to work, it seems it would have the ability to tell the investor to keep the winners and sell the losers soon.


Sunday, September 21, 2003



From a Safe Money Report advertisement:

According to Martin Weiss, banks with high percentage of bad loans (I could not verify the authenticity of these numbers):

Citibank$8.4 bi
JP Morgan Chase$1.4 bi
Wachovia$2.1 bi
Washington Mutual$1.8 bi
Fleet NB$3.1 bi
Bank One$2.5 bi
US Bank$1.4 bi
Merrill Lynch$214 mi
World Savings$318 mi
LaSalle Bank$472 mi
Deutsche Bank$1.6 bi


It seems all that money is or was owed by Global Crossing, Kmart, Budget Group, GenTek, Kaiser Aluminum, McLeod USA, Metromedia, US Airways, Williams Communications, NTL, Enron, HealthSouth, Qwest Communications, Sprint PCS, Corning, Lucent, Nortel Networks, and other telecom, cable and energy companies.

As per Martin Weiss, these banks have the largest derivative holdings:

JP Morgan Chase$28,432 bi
Bank of America$12,467 bi
Citibank$8,381 bi
Wachovia Bank$2,041 bi
Bank One$1,090 bi
Wells Fargo$668 bi
HSBC Bank USA$670 bi
Fleet$435 bi
Bank of New York$425 bi
State Street B&T$235 bi
National City Bank$166 bi
National City Bank of IN$115 bi
Standard Federal Bank$111 bi
Mellon Bank$88 bi
LaSalle Bank$72 bi
Keybank$71 bi
Suntrust Bank$69 bi
PNC Bank$47 bi
US Bank$42 bi
Deutsche Bank$43 bi
First Tennessee Bank$28 bi
Merrill Lynch Bank$23 bi
Comercia Bank$20 bi
Capital One Bank$18 bi
Union Bank of CA$17 bi



Some of Taipan Group's predictions III

Aging Baby Boomers will increase demand for healthcare: This aging generation refuses to behave older as the previous one did. The try to extend their lifestyle through sports, cosmetic surgery, fitness equipments, medicine, hair re-growth and a lot of other methods. Companies that make new drugs, generic drugs with patents expired, anti-obesity and age related drugs can profit in this scenario.

As baby boomers age, the demand for retirement, assisted living and healthcare facilities will also increase in the next 10 years.

[A good company would be ICOS Copr. It manufactures Cialis with Eli Lilly & Co. Cialis is a competitor to Viagra that produces instant erection and no side effects. I still need to find out about a company that dominates about 400 drugs, mostly injectables. There is another company has drugs that cure metabolic disorders, melanoma, asthma and leukemia and has deals with Park-Davis, Proctor & Gamble, Pfizer and Hoffman-LaRoche. Another one has a diabetic drug with growing sales and another company is the number one in over-the-counter sales.

REITs that own retirement communities and their respective dividends: NHP (8.5%), HR (7.9%), NHR (7.9%), HCN (7.6%), HCP (7.4%), NHI (7.4%), UHT (7.3%), VTR (6%), LTC (4.3%), WRS (3.4%), OHI (0%)]







Thursday, September 18, 2003


Brian Hicks from the Volume Spike Alert service mentioned this $1.30 defense stock whose product performed so well in the battlefield that General Tommy Franks personally thanked the company after returning from the war. Today the stock volume went up from its 3 month average of 650,000 to 3 million shares.

Mr. Hicks says something big is brewing and it looks like it could hit US$2.00 a share.

I think that the stock he is talking about is Arotech Corp (NasdaqNM: ARTX) and it is up 13.56% today.







Wednesday, September 17, 2003


Hats off to William Colburn from the Fear and Greed report! His ALTERNATE ENERGY(OTC BB: ARGY.OB) really did well today.

This company develops environmentally friendly fuels and power solutions (alternative energy) and owns patented fuel cell hydrogen production methods. The company announced successful tests of its highly pure hydrogen production process.

Colburn had been observing the volume spikes and recommended ARGY.OB at $1.43 around 2PM on 9/16. Today it jumped 36.63% from the previous close to reach 2.35!

As he said, today is beautiful!







In November 2003, cellular service providers must allow customers to keep their phone number when they change carriers.

The ChangeWave newsletter is telling us that there is a company that sells a number portability and number inventory management software and some other applications to most of these cellular carriers.

As they say, the stock went up recently and has a trailing P/E ratio of 16, sells for 8 times cash flow and will be growing earnings at 30-40% in the next 18-24 months.

I think the name of the company is Evolving Systems (NasdaqSC: EVOL). This Denver company has the highest share price appreciation over the last 52 weeks, as per Motley Fool's Bill Mann.





Sunday, September 14, 2003


Some of Taipan Group's predictions II

Technological breakthroughs from the war on terror: Some companies will get a lot of the extra $400 billion approved for Homeland Security. Companies that market biometrics checks, retina scanners, face recognition, shipping-container scanners, stun guns, battle-ready laptops and so on.

The money invested in these techologies can spill over other areas and create advances in medicine, consumer products. The same innovations in the military field can benefit the consumer market. Remember the Internet was originally an idea from the Pentagon.

[My own bet on this scenario is on TASR (Taser). They sell stun guns that cause an effect similar to cramps in all the muscles of the body. I think that, eventually, this will be adopted by all airport security and police departments. The other stock would be XYBR, the company that makes a wearable computer for soldiers.]







Some of Taipan Group's highly speculative predictions - part I:

Oil Apocalypse: They say America will go to war with Saudi Arabia. Saudi citizens have been rioting since 2002, burning American flags in the streets, howling anti-Western slogans and calling for the blood of their own royal family and the collapse of their government. Saudi markets cannot keep Bin Laden T-shirts in stock.

Arabia is the number one importer of weapons. The Saudi national debt is 150% larger than its GDP and the government budget deficit has been going on for the last 17 years. Saudi unemployment reached 40%. Saudi streets are full of potholes and electricity regularly shuts off.

King Fahd, our ally in the royal family is dying in a hospital. His brother who will rule in his place is not pro-American. Prince Sultan, the Saudi Minister of Defense, has publicly attacked Saudi Arabia's pro-American stance. The rest of the Saudi Royals squandered their wealth with prostitutes, drugs, alcohol, a violent affront to ultra-conservative Muslims.

Saudi and US interests cannot be separated in time and when the crisis happens, the price of oil and the price of oil stocks that are not involved in the Middle East will skyrocket.

[Now this is my own opinion: SYNM (SYNTROLEUM CORP) could benefit from a scenario like this - they make synthetic liquid fuels from natural gas. PTR (Petrochina) could also benefit since all of its reserves are in China.]





Wednesday, September 10, 2003


The Value Edge newsletter mentioned the leading manufacturer of lightweight bulletproof vests for infantry, DHB INDUSTRIES (AMEX:DHB). According to them, this $4 stock would be fairly valued at US$9.88 a share due to its 26% EPS growth forecasted for 2003. The company is expected to grow earnings 22.5% in the next 5 years. With war in Iraq, this expectation may be well justified.







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